What the latest federal labor projections reveal about plumbing demand—and the opportunity to invest in the businesses meeting it.
What federal employment projections reveal about essential demand, skilled labor, and the opportunity to build stronger plumbing businesses.
Before a restaurant serves its first customer, its plumbing has to work. Before a hotel welcomes its guests, its water systems have to work. Before a medical practice begins seeing patients, its facility has to be ready.
Consider what happens when those systems fail. A leaking supply line or backed-up drain can quickly become an operating problem, putting revenue, property, and customer relationships at risk. The business owner needs someone who can respond, diagnose the issue, and get the building functioning again.
That dependence is at the heart of the investment case for plumbing.
At National Mechanical Services, we see an opportunity to own and strengthen the businesses responsible for this essential work.
The latest U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics projections add substance to that thesis.
The BLS outlook for heating, air conditioning, and refrigeration mechanics and installers projects 11% employment growth from 2025 to 2035, compared with 3% across all occupations. Its companion plumbing outlook projects 7% growth for plumbers, pipefitters, and steamfitters over the same period.
BLS occupational category Projected employment growth, 2025–2035 Average annual openings
Heating, air conditioning, and refrigeration mechanics and installers 11% 40,600
Plumbers, pipefitters, and steamfitters 7% 42,000
All occupations 3% —
Annual openings include positions associated with growth and the replacement of workers who leave an occupation or retire. The plumbing category includes pipefitters and steamfitters.
These are employment projections. The investment implications below reflect NMS’s analysis of the findings.
For us, the most compelling part of the plumbing outlook is the source of the demand.
BLS identifies both new construction and the maintenance and repair of systems in existing buildings as drivers of employment.
A building’s need for plumbing expertise continues long after construction is complete. Think of a commercial property owner with several locations: an urgent repair at one building, replacement equipment at another, and planned improvements at a third. A contractor that performs well has an opportunity to become a trusted resource across that portfolio.
That is why we see value in established customer relationships and a meaningful service business. Repeat work can create continuity between larger projects and deepen the contractor’s knowledge of the customer’s properties. The investor’s task is to verify that continuity through service history, customer retention, and the actual mix of contracted and repeat work.
The HVAC outlook adds useful context. BLS points to construction and increasingly sophisticated climate-control systems as growth drivers, alongside the ongoing need for equipment upgrades and replacement. Our reading is that the broader mechanical sector benefits from two continuing needs: equipping buildings and keeping them functional throughout their useful lives.
For plumbing investors, the quality of the workforce is just as consequential as the demand.
BLS reports that most plumbers, pipefitters, and steamfitters learn through apprenticeships lasting four or five years. That training period matters when evaluating an acquisition. An experienced crew represents years of accumulated judgment, technical development, and familiarity with how work gets done.
Buying trucks and equipment is relatively straightforward. Building a team that consistently diagnoses problems, completes work correctly, and earns customers’ confidence takes sustained effort.
We therefore view employee retention, field leadership, and training as central investment priorities. They influence how much work a company can accept and how reliably it can deliver. Recruiting costs, compensation, and overtime also affect profitability. A business needs an operating plan that accounts for both its people and its growth ambitions.
This is where NMS sees an opportunity to create value.
We are building an acquisition platform focused on profitable commercial plumbing and mechanical businesses across the Southeast.
Our strategy is to pair the relationships and expertise of established operators with the management systems needed to support their next stage of growth.
Consider an illustrative plumbing contractor with a strong reputation and a full schedule. Its owner still reviews every estimate, assigns crews, resolves customer issues, and follows up on unpaid invoices. Even with healthy demand, the owner’s capacity can become the limit on the business.
A stronger operating structure can address that constraint. Consistent estimating helps the company price work with a clearer understanding of cost. Better scheduling helps match available labor to commitments. Timely job costing gives management an earlier view of margin problems. Disciplined billing and collections help convert completed work into cash.
Those are concrete improvements an acquisition platform can pursue. Each should be measured against a financial or operating result.
Our investment thesis combines the durability of essential plumbing work with the opportunity to improve how established companies operate. The goal is to build businesses capable of serving more customers while maintaining quality, developing their teams, and producing sustainable earnings.
Execution determines whether that opportunity becomes a successful investment. Purchase price, debt obligations, customer concentration, project exposure, and cash collection all matter. A contractor can remain busy and still struggle financially if it prices work poorly or waits too long to collect payment.
That is why the BLS findings are a starting point for investment analysis. They support a long-term view of demand for skilled work; evaluating a particular business requires scrutiny of its economics and operations.
For investors seeking exposure to essential services, plumbing deserves serious attention. The customer need is tangible, the work requires developed expertise, and capable operators have practical ways to strengthen performance.
At NMS, that is the opportunity we are building around: acquiring established businesses and giving them the leadership, systems, and support to grow.
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